Liberals Projected To Hold Nepean Despite Weakened Vote

The Liberal Party is projected to retain Nepean, but provisional results show a weakened primary vote, a strong One Nation result and a sizeable independent vote for Tracee Hutchison.

The Liberal Party is projected to retain Nepean, but provisional results show a weakened primary vote, a strong One Nation result and a sizeable independent vote for Tracee Hutchison.

STPL News observed a calmer atmosphere at Rosebud pre-poll on Wednesday, 29 April, following the previous day’s reports, footage and photos showing confrontational scenes outside the early voting centre.

Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh is facing fresh signs of unrest in Nepean, with long-time Liberal supporters, public comments and a former party member’s full-page advertisement raising questions about his candidacy.

The Victorian Liberal Party appears to have repeated in Hastings the same top-down preselection play used in Nepean, raising fresh questions about rank-and-file members being shut out and the political cost of party arrogance.

The Nepean by-election is set for 2 May after Sam Groth’s resignation. Labor is not running, One Nation has named Darren Hercus, and a Roy Morgan poll shows One Nation leading in Victoria. Anthony Marsh’s past statements and a verified how-to-vote card have added scrutiny as the May by-election and November state election approaches.

Anthony Marsh’s previous written survey responses on party affiliation and political donations are being revisited as the Mornington Peninsula mayor seeks Liberal preselection for the Nepean by-election on 2 May 2026.

Key claims first reported by STPL News about Anthony Marsh’s bid for Liberal preselection in Nepean have now been confirmed by major media reporting.

Sam Groth has resigned as the Liberal Member for Nepean, prompting a by-election. In a statement dated 4 February 2026, the Leader of the Opposition thanked Groth for his contribution and said the contest would focus on cost of living, crime, health and housing ahead of the November 2026 state election.

Victorian Liberal MP Sam Groth has announced he will not continue in Parliament beyond the 2026 state election, citing pressure on his family and internal party issues. His departure leaves the Liberals with a Nepean vacancy less than 12 months from polling day, as the party is also yet to announce a candidate for Hastings.

Jess Wilson has been appointed Victorian Opposition Leader following yet another Liberal Party leadership change, a year before the 2026 state election. The shift highlights ongoing instability within the party as it works to reset its direction and present a credible alternative to voters ahead of polling day.

The 2025 federal election sees Flinders' long-standing Liberal seat under threat as Independent Ben Smith gains momentum against incumbent Zoe McKenzie.