As pre-poll voting continues ahead of the Nepean by-election, Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh is facing mounting signs of unrest among some traditional Liberal voters.
The pressure follows a campaign video released by Independent candidate Tracee Hutchison, featuring a self-described long-term Liberal supporter backing her candidacy.
STPL News has also been supplied with an earlier email, attributed to the same supporter, warning the Liberal Party’s preselection committee against choosing Marsh.
The video and email come alongside public Facebook comments from Liberal-leaning voters, a full-page newspaper advertisement authorised by a verified former Liberal Party member urging voters to put Marsh last, and an escalating Liberal campaign targeting One Nation.
Together, the material points to visible dissatisfaction among some Liberal-leaning voters, although the scale of that dissatisfaction remains unclear.
Long-Term Liberal Supporter Backs Hutchison
In the video posted to Hutchison’s campaign social media account, a man identified as Richard describes himself as a long-term Liberal supporter and says Nepean needs an independent voice.
I’m a long-term Liberal supporter and have decided that this is the time to support an independent because we need a voice for the Nepean, someone who is sensitive to the environment, still in favour of getting our fair share of development, and someone who will speak honestly about the needs of the community here in Nepean, an area that has been long neglected politically. And Tracee, I’m wishing you all the best for a successful campaign.
In the post, Hutchison thanked Richard for his support, describing herself as a “strong, local independent voice for Nepean”.
Email Warned Liberals Against Marsh
STPL News has also been supplied with an email attributed to Richard and addressed to the Liberal Party’s preselection committee before Marsh was selected.
The email urged the committee to support David Burgess, describing him as a local candidate with a strong record of working for the Liberal Party and engaging in community activities.
The same email warned against nominating Marsh.
I also wish to warn against nominating Anthony Marsh. His performance as mayor has been disruptive and controversial. The recent appointment of government monitors for the Mornington Peninsula Shire Council highlighted the need for improvements in governance and better management of the Council. This should be a large red flag for the selection committee.
The email concluded by stating that if Marsh was selected, the author would have to reconsider his support for the party.
Should Marsh be selected I would have to review my support for the Party.
Marsh was later selected as the Liberal candidate for Nepean.
Full-Page Ad Urged Voters To Put Marsh Last
The public criticism has not been limited to social media.
A full-page advertisement published in the Southern Peninsula News last week urged voters to put Marsh last on their ballot paper.
The advertisement, published under the banner “Coalition for Honesty in Politics”, described Marsh as “unscrupulous” and “opportunistic” and called on residents of the southern Mornington Peninsula to vote against him.
The advertisement was authorised by I Morrison, Mount Eliza. STPL News has verified Morrison as a former Liberal Party member.
The ad raised several criticisms of Marsh’s candidacy and council record, including his previous statements about political ambition, his Liberal Party membership, his preselection, his council voting record, his place of residence, paid parking, public council meetings, community consultation and transparency measures.
STPL News has verified the claims referred to in the advertisement. The advertisement is now part of the public campaign against Marsh and adds another sign of organised opposition to his candidacy from a former Liberal Party member.
Liberal Anti-One Nation Campaign Hits Full Throttle
At the same time, the Liberal campaign has escalated its attacks on One Nation in Nepean.
Voters have reported receiving Liberal-authorised campaign material across multiple channels, including mailouts, text messages, videos, signs and billboard-style advertising.
The push has targeted One Nation in a seat where Labor is not fielding a candidate, making the result highly dependent on how Liberal, independent, minor party and conservative-leaning voters move across the ballot.
STPL News has heard claims the Liberal campaign spend may be substantial, with figures as high as $500,000 circulating among political observers. STPL News has not independently verified that figure.
What is clear is that the Liberal Party is not only campaigning to win first-preference votes. It is also aggressively campaigning against One Nation, despite public comments from some Liberal-leaning voters who say those attacks are turning them away from the party.
The strategy appears designed to stop One Nation from becoming the main conservative alternative in Nepean. But the public reaction suggests the tactic may also be alienating some voters who expected conservative parties to focus their fire elsewhere.
Voters Respond To STPL News Callout
After Hutchison’s video was published, STPL News asked traditional Liberal Party supporters and long-time Liberal voters in Nepean to come forward if they had withdrawn, reconsidered or shifted their support following Marsh’s selection.
The post stated that public comments may be used in future coverage.
One commenter, Geoff Meers, wrote:
I normally vote Libs but will give one nation a go this election.
Meers said Marsh’s record as mayor and the Liberal campaign’s material against One Nation had turned him away from the party.
Councillor Marsh did stuff all as Mayor now is campaigning to fix the potholes he never fixed as mayor. Also the Libs sending out flyers and text.messages against one nation is turning me off them.
Another commenter, Margaret O’Neill, said she had been a Liberal voter “for quite some time”, but would be voting in another direction because of Marsh.
Been a Liberal voter for quite some time, since we realised Labor did absolutely nothing for small businesses. So it saddens us to be voting in another direction this coming election, due to the Liberal candidate, Anthony Marsh.
Other commenters also raised concerns.
Faye Atkinson wrote “Yes changed my vote”, citing internal Liberal conflict and concerns about Marsh’s selection.
Christopher Leighton wrote: “I don’t believe Anthony Marsh is the right or proper candidate for our Liberal Party.” When asked whether he had withdrawn, reconsidered or shifted support from the Liberal Party for the by-election, he replied: “Withdrawn support from the Liberal Party for this election.”
Bierre Luggerre wrote: “We didn’t leave the Libs, they left us…Seem determined to stay in opposition forever, and are clinging to that.”
Ben Dyson criticised the Liberal campaign’s strategy, saying Marsh appeared to be “playing the don’t say anything strategy” and describing the campaign as “shambolic”.
Liberal Campaign Faces A Voter Problem
The Nepean by-election is being contested without a Labor candidate, placing greater importance on how Liberal, independent and minor party support moves across the ballot.
For the Liberal Party, the problem is clear. Marsh is not only facing attacks from rival campaigns and political opponents. He is also facing public criticism from voters who say they would normally support, or at least consider supporting, the Liberal Party.
The Facebook comments do not prove a broader collapse in Liberal support. The advertisement does not prove that a large number of Liberal voters have walked away. The rumoured campaign spend has not been verified.
However, taken together, the material shows dissatisfaction with Marsh’s candidacy is no longer confined to rival candidates or opposing parties.
With election day approaching, the Liberal campaign now faces a blunt political problem: if some traditional Liberal voters and former party members are prepared to say publicly they have walked away, undecided voters may ask why.
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