Liberal Campaign Goes Harder Negative In Nepean As Anti-One Nation Flyer, Video And Texts Circulate

Fresh anti-One Nation material is circulating in Nepean through letterbox flyers, authorised video and text messages, adding to a pattern of increasingly negative campaigning by the Liberal Party as pressure builds in a by-election where Rosebud Hospital has become a central issue.

A new flyer seen by STPL News claims One Nation wants to privatise Rosebud Hospital and urges voters to back the Liberals on 2 May. The material carries Liberal authorisation at the bottom. Screenshots also supplied to STPL News purport to show text messages sent to residents using the subject line “One Nation’s Secret” and pushing the same hospital attack line. According to material supplied to STPL News, the linked video is authorised Liberal Party campaign content.

STPL News has not independently verified who physically sent the text messages or how recipients’ phone numbers were sourced. What the material does show is that the Liberal campaign’s Rosebud Hospital attack line is now being pushed across multiple channels.

Pattern Is Becoming Harder To Ignore

This latest material does not stand alone. It follows earlier Liberal-authorised campaign attacks already reported by STPL News, first against One Nation candidate Darren Hercus and then against independent Tracee Hutchison.

That matters because it points to a broader pattern. What began as controversial flyer campaigning has now expanded into a wider, more coordinated negative push aimed at rival candidates rather than a straightforward positive case for Anthony Marsh.

Rosebud Hospital Is The Battleground

Rosebud Hospital is one of the defining issues in this by-election. ABC has reported that all candidates agree the ageing hospital needs an upgrade or rebuild, and that while Marsh entered the race as favourite, the Liberals are facing a serious challenge from One Nation’s Darren Hercus in a contest Labor is not contesting.

That helps explain why the Liberals are campaigning so aggressively on the hospital issue. But the attack line also exposes a weakness in the Liberal message.

When Opposition Leader Jess Wilson announced the Liberal commitment to a $340 million rebuild of Rosebud Hospital, she said a vote for Anthony Marsh in the by-election was “the first step” towards changing government in November. In other words, the Liberal promise is contingent on a future Coalition win at the state election, not something Nepean voters can deliver through this by-election result alone.

One Nation, by contrast, has publicly campaigned for a public-private partnership pathway, with Hercus arguing it is the only defined model currently being put forward as a delivery pathway rather than another future election promise.

Whether voters agree with that model is a separate question. The political point is that the Liberals have chosen to spend valuable campaign energy attacking it.

A Campaign Under Pressure

The broader backdrop is also significant. ABC analysis of last month’s South Australian election said One Nation’s surge left the Liberal Party “deeply wounded”, after One Nation outpolled the Liberals on statewide primary vote and became the second-highest polling party.

Nepean is now being watched as more than a routine by-election. If One Nation performs strongly here, it will add to existing Liberal anxiety about conservative vote leakage and about the party’s ability to hold ground ahead of November. ABC has already described the Nepean contest as a guide to the Liberal Party’s state election prospects.

That is what makes the latest flyer, video and text campaign so revealing.

If the Liberals believed Anthony Marsh could comfortably win on a positive argument alone, voters would be seeing more of that argument. Instead, they are seeing a campaign increasingly built around warnings about Darren Hercus, One Nation, and anyone else capable of cutting into the Liberal vote.

Nepean voters can decide on 2 May who represents them. They cannot decide who forms government. What they can judge right now is the tone of the campaign in front of them. On the evidence now circulating, that tone is becoming harder, more negative and more focused on stopping opponents than selling a clear local mandate for the Liberal candidate.