The Liberal Party is projected to retain the state seat of Nepean, despite a weakened primary vote and strong challenges from One Nation and independent Tracee Hutchison in Saturday’s by-election.
The ABC has projected Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh will win the seat, succeeding former Liberal MP and deputy leader Sam Groth, whose resignation triggered the by-election. Labor did not contest the by-election, leaving One Nation’s Darren Hercus and independent Tracee Hutchison as the main challengers to the Liberal candidate.
Liberal Hold, But Vote Falls
The Victorian Electoral Commission had not formally declared a successful candidate by its latest published update, with results still listed as provisional only.
As at the VEC’s 9.30pm update, Marsh led the primary vote with 14,821 votes, or 38.49 per cent. Hercus was second with 9,507 votes, or 24.69 per cent, followed by Hutchison with 8,206 votes, or 21.31 per cent.
Greens candidate Sianan Healy had 3,581 votes, or 9.30 per cent, while Legalise Cannabis candidate Renee Thompson had 1,114 votes, or 2.89 per cent.
On the VEC’s provisional two-candidate preferred count, Marsh was ahead of Hutchison with 63.41 per cent to 36.59 per cent.
One Nation Claims Breakthrough
One Nation used the result to claim a breakthrough in what it described as Liberal heartland, pointing to Hercus sitting second on primary votes.
Nepean was always going to be one of the hardest seats in the country for One Nation to crack.
The party said the Liberal primary vote had fallen sharply and argued the result should be treated as a warning ahead of the November state election.
They held the seat tonight, but they did so on the lowest Liberal primary vote Nepean has ever recorded. That is not a win, that is a warning shot.
That claim remains a political statement from One Nation and has not yet been tested against the final official result.
Hutchison Yet To Make Statement
Hutchison had not made a public statement on the result at the time of publication.
While she was third on primary votes, she remained the candidate listed against Marsh in the VEC’s provisional two-candidate preferred count.
Donations Transparency Raised
One Nation also criticised the lack of political donations transparency during the campaign.
The issue follows the High Court’s decision in Hopper v Victoria, which affected Victoria’s political finance laws. The VEC has since said its political donations information is under review and may be impacted.
Council By-Election Timing Now In Focus
Marsh’s projected move to state parliament also raises a timing question for Mornington Peninsula Shire Council, where he is currently listed by the VEC as the councillor for Briars Ward.
Mornington Peninsula Shire also lists Marsh as mayor, after he was re-elected to the role in November 2025.
Under the VEC’s determination for filling extraordinary vacancies on local councils, a council by-election would be scheduled for 1 August 2026 if a vacancy occurs between 7 March and 8 May 2026. If the vacancy occurs between 9 May and 10 July 2026, the by-election date would be 3 October 2026.
That means the timing of any resignation from Marsh’s council position could affect when Briars Ward voters are next asked to vote.
Saturday night’s result leaves the Liberals projected to hold Nepean, but with a reduced primary vote, a strong One Nation result and a sizeable independent vote that will likely be closely examined before Victoria returns to the polls in November.
