RedBridge Says One Nation Surge Points To ‘End Of The Menzies Project’

RedBridge and Accent Research’s MRP model projects Labor on 76 seats, One Nation on 53 seats and the Coalition on 12 seats if an election were held now.

RedBridge director Kos Samaras says new federal modelling points to “the end of the Menzies project”, with One Nation projected to overtake the Coalition if an election were held now.

The RedBridge and Accent Research MRP model projects Labor on 76 seats, One Nation on 53 seats and the Coalition on just 12 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives.

Samaras said the model showed the Liberal Party’s traditional base had “vanished”, with many voters who once formed part of the Coalition’s support now moving to One Nation.

One Nation projected to become opposition

According to Samaras, the model puts Labor on 31 per cent of the primary vote, One Nation on 28 per cent and the Coalition on 21 per cent.

In seat terms, Labor would retain a narrow majority with 76 seats. One Nation would rise from no lower house seats at the 2025 federal election to 53 in the model, while the Coalition would fall from 43 seats to 12.

Independents would win eight seats, while Katter’s Australian Party would retain one seat.

If voters delivered that result at an election, One Nation would replace the Coalition as the largest non-government party in the lower house.

Coalition base under pressure

Samaras argued the model showed a major shift among regional, outer-suburban and working-class voters.

He said One Nation had broken into communities the Coalition once relied on, including blue-collar suburbs, mortgage-belt areas and regional Queensland.

The model also projects the Coalition would fail to win a seat in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia or Tasmania.

That would mark a major break from traditional federal politics, where the Liberal and National parties have relied heavily on regional and outer-suburban seats.

Why it matters locally

The model is federal, but its implications reach into Victoria’s next state election, due on Saturday 28 November 2026.

Voters will elect one lower house MP in each district, including the local seats of Nepean, Hastings, Mornington and Frankston.

Those seats sit across the outer-suburban, coastal and mortgage-belt communities central to Samaras’s argument.

For the Mornington Peninsula and Frankston, the question is not whether a federal model can be applied directly to a state election. It cannot.

The local relevance is the voter movement behind the model: cost-of-living pressure, housing stress, frustration with major parties and a willingness to consider alternatives outside the traditional Labor-versus-Coalition contest.

That makes Nepean, Hastings, Mornington and Frankston important seats to watch in November.

If the trend identified by Samaras carries into state politics, One Nation and other minor-party or independent campaigns could influence contests that might otherwise have been viewed mainly through a Labor-versus-Liberal lens.

A model, not a result

The figures remain a polling model, not an election result.

MRP, or multi-level regression with post-stratification, uses polling and demographic data to estimate seat-level outcomes.

Actual election results would depend on candidates, local campaigns, preference flows, turnout, leadership, policy positions and events between now and polling day.

Polling can also shift quickly, particularly when voters respond to cost-of-living pressure, distrust in major parties or protest sentiment.

Even so, the scale of the projected change makes the model politically significant.

Major parties face volatile electorate

Labor would remain in government under the model, but only with a narrow majority.

For the Coalition, the projection raises deeper questions about whether the Liberal and National parties can hold their traditional base.

Samaras’s interpretation is clear: the Coalition’s historical political project is breaking down, and voters once described as the Liberal Party’s “forgotten people” are moving elsewhere.

For now, the model remains a snapshot. But it points to a more volatile electorate, weaker party loyalty and growing support for alternatives outside the two-party structure.