Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has recorded a major electoral breakthrough, with the ABC calling the Farrer by-election for David Farley in what it described as the first time the party has won a lower house seat in federal parliament.
The result matters well beyond the NSW electorate.
Farrer had been held by the Coalition since the seat was created in 1949 and had been represented by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley for the past 25 years. At the 2025 federal election, the Liberal Party secured more than 43 per cent of the first-preference vote in Farrer, independent Michelle Milthorpe received about 20 per cent, Labor received 15 per cent and One Nation was just under 7 per cent.
A year later, Farley had more than 40 per cent of the primary vote when the ABC called the seat.
That is not a small swing. It is a political warning shot.
The ABC reported that, with about 45 per cent of the vote counted, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski had 11.47 per cent and Nationals candidate Brad Robertson had 9.59 per cent, leaving the Coalition candidates in third and fourth place.
Farrer Shows One Nation Can Win
For years, One Nation has often been treated as a party that could pull votes away from the major parties without necessarily converting that support into lower house seats.
Farrer challenges that assumption.
The ABC’s post-election analysis said the Farrer result presented One Nation as a “genuine electoral threat rather than just a protest”, with the party now positioning the seat as a potential blueprint for success in regional areas.
That is the point of local relevance.
Farrer showed One Nation can win.
Nepean had already shown it could threaten.
Nepean Had Already Exposed The Pressure
Only a week before Farrer, the Nepean by-election on the Mornington Peninsula showed similar pressure building in Victorian Liberal-held territory.
Anthony Marsh retained Nepean for the Liberal Party, but the result was not a simple show of Liberal strength.
According to Antony Green’s final result page, Marsh received 38.7 per cent of the primary vote, down 9.4 percentage points. One Nation candidate Darren Hercus finished second on first preferences with 24.5 per cent, ahead of independent Tracee Hutchison on 21 per cent. Labor did not contest the by-election.
The Liberal Party held the seat after preferences, with Marsh defeating Hutchison 63.6 per cent to 36.4 per cent on the two-candidate preferred count. But the primary vote showed a fractured electorate.
That matters because the Liberals suffered a primary vote fall despite Labor not contesting the by-election. In other words, the Liberal primary vote fell without facing the full Labor campaign machine.
Booth Results Show The Threat Was Local
The booth-level result was one of the clearest warning signs from Nepean.
One Nation did not simply record a broad protest vote across the electorate. Its support was strong enough to top the first-preference count in several local booths, while the Liberal margin was razor thin in others.
Dromana
First on primary vote: Darren Hercus, One Nation
Hercus: 204 votes
Marsh: 201 votes
Rosebud
First on primary vote: Darren Hercus, One Nation
Hercus: 639 votes
Marsh: 590 votes
Tootgarook
First on primary vote: Darren Hercus, One Nation
Hercus: 140 votes
Marsh: 120 votes
Shoreham
First on primary vote: Tracee Hutchison, Independent
Hutchison: 189 votes
Marsh: 128 votes
Rosebud West
First on primary vote: Anthony Marsh, Liberal
Marsh: 118 votes
Hercus: 117 votes
The VEC lists these as provisional recheck figures, with results last updated on 8 May.
Those figures matter because they show One Nation’s support was concentrated enough to win booths, not just lift its electorate-wide primary vote.
In Dromana, Hercus finished three votes ahead of Marsh. In Tootgarook, he led by 20 votes. In Rosebud, he led by 49 votes. In Rosebud West and Waterfall Gully, Marsh held off Hercus by only one vote in each booth.
Shoreham showed a different kind of major-party pressure, with independent Tracee Hutchison topping the booth ahead of Marsh.
That is why the Nepean result should not be read only through the final two-candidate preferred outcome.
Marsh won the seat, but the booth map showed clear fractures beneath the Liberal victory. One Nation topped key booths through Dromana, Rosebud and Tootgarook, came within one vote in two others, and finished second overall on first preferences.
For November, that is the warning.
Nepean Was A Rehearsal For November
The Nepean by-election also gave November’s likely challengers a direct look at the Liberal campaign operation.
Hercus and Hutchison are expected to campaign again in November, meaning both enter the general election with fresh booth data, campaign experience and a clearer understanding of where their support is strongest.
The ABC’s Victorian political analysis said one in four Nepean voters supported One Nation, with support higher in areas such as Rosebud and Dromana. It also said the result had left some party operatives “disturbed” about what could happen in November.
The Guardian also reported One Nation performed particularly well in some of the electorate’s more economically stressed areas, including Rosebud and Tootgarook, and noted that Marsh received 118 votes to Hercus’s 117 in Rosebud West.
That is the local lesson from Nepean. One Nation does not need to win every booth to reshape a contest. It only needs enough concentrated support to damage major-party primaries, influence preferences and change campaign strategy.
Campaign Tensions Could Affect Preferences
The preference question may also matter in November.
During the Nepean by-election, Antony Green noted that Hercus and Marsh were recommending preferences for each other.
The VEC says how-to-vote cards are only suggestions and that voters remain free to decide how they number their ballot.
But in a fragmented field, preference recommendations still matter.
Antony Green’s result page recorded by-election preferences flowing 62.2 per cent to the Liberal Party and 38.5 per cent to Hutchison on the final two-candidate preferred count.
The question is whether the Liberal Party can assume the same favourable environment in November.
Since the by-election, Hercus has publicly criticised the Liberal campaign’s conduct at Rosebud pre-poll. In a post published on his official candidate Facebook page, he alleged Liberal-aligned campaigners repeatedly shouted false information over One Nation volunteers and attempted to bait them.
Hercus also claimed complaints to the Victorian Electoral Commission had little effect, and said when he raised the issue with Marsh, Marsh replied: “Darren, they have one job to do.”
Those claims should be treated as allegations unless independently verified. But they point to a campaign relationship that may not be easily repaired before the state election.
If One Nation again polls strongly in Nepean, the Liberal Party may need its preferences. After the by-election campaign, it cannot automatically assume the same favourable treatment.
Hastings Also Comes Into Focus
The Farrer and Nepean results also put Hastings back into focus.
Labor’s Paul Mercurio holds Hastings on a narrow margin after winning the seat in 2022. Victorian Electoral Commission figures show Mercurio won after preferences with 51.35 per cent to Liberal candidate Briony Hutton’s 48.65 per cent. On first preferences, Hutton led with 39.81 per cent, ahead of Mercurio on 37.26 per cent.
That makes Hastings highly sensitive to shifts in primary votes, preference flows and minor-party campaigning.
The electorate covers French Island and the western shore of Western Port, running from Langwarrin through Somerville, Tyabb and Hastings to Crib Point, Balnarring and Somers.
STPL News has been told by multiple One Nation sources that the party has been building its membership base across the Western Port area, with claims of about 900 members in the region. The figure has not been officially confirmed by the party and should be treated as an internal claim, not an official membership number.
Still, if One Nation can turn that local activity into volunteers, booth coverage and preference leverage, it could have a meaningful role in Hastings.
The Guardian’s Nepean analysis also identified Hastings among the seats to watch, quoting RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras as saying seats with blue-collar workers and people under financial stress could be “on fire” in November.
The Farrer result shows One Nation can now convert a protest vote into a lower house seat. The Nepean result shows it can build a serious vote on the Mornington Peninsula. Hastings may show whether that pressure can also reshape a marginal Labor-held seat.
November Warning For Major Parties
Victoria’s next state election will be held on 28 November 2026, with every seat of the Legislative Council and Legislative Assembly to be contested.
Farrer is not Nepean, and a federal by-election in NSW is not the same as a Victorian state election.
But the trend is now difficult to ignore.
In Farrer, One Nation converted a surge in support into a federal lower house seat. In Nepean, it did not win, but it took nearly one in four first-preference votes, topped the poll in several booths and exposed a fall in the Liberal primary vote, even without Labor in the race.
In Hastings, a narrow Labor margin, local cost-of-living pressure and reports of One Nation organising across the Western Port area make the party difficult to dismiss.
The major parties now face a different question.
This is no longer only about whether One Nation can damage their primary vote. It is about whether that vote can become concentrated, organised and large enough to change who wins seats.
Farrer was the breakthrough.
Nepean was the warning.
Hastings may be the test.
November will show whether Victoria’s major parties have been paying attention.
