The Liberals have launched Anthony Marsh as their candidate for the Nepean by-election on 2 May, a poll triggered by the resignation of former Nepean MP and former deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth.
With Labor confirming it will not run a candidate in May, the contest is no longer a neat two-party script. It is now a blunt test of how much damage the Liberals can absorb in a seat they are expected to hold, and how much momentum One Nation can convert into votes.
The Liberal bet: Marsh, and the credibility problem is not going away
Anthony Marsh has been a liberal party member for less than a month.
But the bigger problem is not party paperwork. It is the public record.
Two lines from Marsh’s own candidate statement in the official VEC voter pack are now being thrown back at him. In that statement, Marsh wrote:
I have no political affiliations.
He also told voters:
This is not a career for me, and I won’t disappear to run for parliament.
Those statements have resurfaced as Marsh now seeks state parliament under the Liberal banner.
Marsh told the ABC he is running because many of the peninsula’s issues are state responsibilities and that you “have to be a member of a team to make a difference”.
Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson launched Marsh’s campaign on Saturday and told the ABC she is not concerned about the One Nation threat, pointing to Marsh’s local profile and record as a three-time mayor.
One Nation has a candidate and a clear lane
One Nation’s candidate is Darren Hercus, described as a 55-year-old civil engineer and business owner, as the party targets what it frames as a major Liberal versus One Nation contest in Nepean.
A Herald Sun report sets out Hercus’s pitch on business costs and local priorities including health, policing and infrastructure. Those points are presented as campaign claims by the candidate and the party.
One Nation is not walking into this fight as a fringe sideshow. A Roy Morgan Victorian state voting intention poll released last month put One Nation ahead on primary vote at 26.5 per cent, ahead of the governing ALP on 25.5 per cent and the Coalition on 21.5 per cent.
The Herald Sun column that pours petrol on the fire
This is where it gets uglier for the Liberals.
A Herald Sun Backroom Baz column raises internal blowback over the preselection process and then drops political ammunition.
The column reproduces an image of an earlier Anthony Marsh how-to-vote card showing two Liberal candidates placed at the bottom of the preference order: Bruce Ranken and Steve Holland.
Ranken is now a Mornington Peninsula Shire councillor and Holland served as mayor in 2022–23.
STPL News has verified the how-to-vote card as authentic after sighting the original flyer. On the preference order shown, the Liberal candidates are placed at the bottom, behind Labor and teal-style candidates.
For Liberal voters already furious about the preselection process, that is not a footnote. It is a live credibility wound in the middle of a by-election.
Labor stays out in May, but November is locked in
Labor is not contesting the May by-election. This move is seen as strategic move by labor.
The next Victorian state election is scheduled for 28 November 2026, according to the Parliament of Victoria.
That matters because May is not the finish line. It is a high-stakes warm-up with consequences. Even if the Liberals hold Nepean on 2 May, and it is likely they will, a heavy swing can leave a candidate mortally wounded, and a party bloodied, heading into November.
Even if Marsh wins, the margin is the warning light
RedBridge Group pollster Kos Samaras, quoted by the ABC, said he does not expect One Nation to win Nepean, but expects its vote to be “sizeable”, and said the performance will be watched closely ahead of upcoming elections.
That is the nightmare scenario for party HQ: a win that looks like a loss. A hold that leaves bruises. A candidate who survives May but limps into November.
Groth’s exit and the bill for voters
The ABC reports Groth announced in January he would not stand again, then brought forward his departure and quit in early February.
It reports the Nepean by-election is expected to cost taxpayers about $2 million.
But the state poll may not be the only bill. The Age reported that recent Victorian council by-elections have cost about $130,000 to $180,000 to fill a single seat since the shift to single-member wards, costs that fall on ratepayers. A regional example published by The Border Mail put the VEC’s charge to Wodonga Council at $153,275.85 for a single-ward by-election.
Nepean voters now face two trips to the ballot box in 2026. The May vote decides who holds the seat now. The November vote decides whether the political damage becomes permanent.
