Overall conditions: Mixed for beachgoers this week. Early-week warmth and Very High to Extreme UV are the key concerns, followed by a midweek change bringing showers, possible thunderstorms, and stronger southerly to south-easterly winds, which may affect water conditions, particularly in the afternoons.
Top issues to plan around (priority order)
- Water quality: conditions may change quickly, particularly if rain occurs midweek.
- UV exposure: Very High to Extreme on multiple days, particularly early in the week.
- Wind and weather: strengthening southerly winds and unsettled weather mid to late week.
Plain-language takeaway: Families, weak swimmers, and people using inflatables or paddle craft should take extra care during afternoon wind increases and any thunderstorm activity, when conditions can deteriorate quickly.
Alerts and safety notices
Air quality
- Status: Advice – Air Quality – Stay Informed (statewide).
- Reason: Bushfire smoke impacting air quality in parts of Victoria.
- Issued: Sunday 11/01/26 at 5:08 pm (AEDT).
- Source: VicEmergency.
- Advice: Monitor air quality conditions before outdoor activity. People with asthma, heart, or lung conditions should reduce exposure during poor air quality periods.
Water quality
- Status: EPA issues water quality forecasts twice daily during summer. Individual beach conditions can change within hours.
- Advice: Avoid swimming near creek mouths, drains, and stormwater outlets, particularly after rain, and check the EPA forecast close to your swim time.
Confirmed closures
- Status: No confirmed beach closures identified at the time of publication.
- Note: Temporary closures may occur due to weather, water quality, or safety incidents.
Weather and UV outlook (BOM)
Forecast locations: Frankston South and Flinders.
Weekly trend (12/01/26 to 17/01/26)
Monday 12/01
- Sunny and dry.
- Max temperatures around 25°C (Frankston) and 22°C (Flinders).
- Afternoon southerly winds developing.
- UV Very High to Extreme.
Tuesday 13/01
- Increasing cloud.
- Similar temperatures to Monday.
- Slight chance of a morning shower.
- UV Extreme.
Wednesday 14/01
- Possible showers and thunderstorm risk, mainly later in the day.
- Warm, with highs around 26°C inland.
- UV Very High.
Thursday 15/01
- Cooler with a high chance of showers and possible thunderstorms.
- Stronger southerly to south-easterly winds.
- UV Very High.
Friday 16/01 to Saturday 17/01
- Partly cloudy with a low chance of showers or storms.
- Temperatures recovering to the mid-20s.
Surf and water hazards to keep in mind
- Strengthening afternoon southerly winds may create choppy conditions.
- Thunderstorms can cause sudden wind shifts and reduced visibility.
- Water quality may deteriorate near drains and creeks following rainfall.
Regional beach round-up
Frankston and Seaford
- Key hazards: Wind chop during afternoons, changing conditions midweek.
- Water quality: Check EPA forecasts, especially following rain.
Mount Eliza and Mornington
- Key hazards: Southerly winds building through the day.
- Water quality: Variable near outlets after rainfall.
Mount Martha to Safety Beach
- Key hazards: Stronger winds and unsettled conditions midweek.
- Water quality: Monitor EPA updates closely.
Dromana to Rosebud
- Key hazards: Wind-affected swimming conditions later in the day.
- Water quality: Check conditions before entering the water.
Capel Sound to Rye
- Key hazards: Variable conditions during showers or storms.
- Water quality: Higher risk near drains after rain.
Blairgowrie to Portsea
- Key hazards: Exposed areas affected by stronger winds and swell.
- Water quality: Conditions may change quickly.
Surf beaches
- Key hazards: Strong rips and shorebreak possible even in settled weather.
Before you go checklist
- Check EPA water quality forecasts before swimming.
- Monitor BOM updates for wind and storm timing.
- Take sun protection seriously during Very High or Extreme UV periods.
- Reduce outdoor exertion if smoke affects air quality.
- Avoid swimming near drains and creek mouths, particularly after rain.
- Leave the water early if winds strengthen or storms approach.
Sources and transparency
This report references:
- Bureau of Meteorology forecasts and UV outlooks for Frankston South and Flinders.
- EPA Victoria Beach Report and AirWatch guidance.
- VicEmergency advice relating to air quality.
Conditions can change quickly. If you observe a hazard, include the beach name, time, and details and send it through to STPL News.
