Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie is likely to hold onto the seat of Flinders in the 2025 federal election, though the final result remains unconfirmed. Preliminary booth results show a stark geographic divide in voter sentiment across the Mornington Peninsula.
McKenzie recorded swings of up to 10 per cent in her favour in several Somerville and Hastings booths—areas where her campaign focused heavily on infrastructure pledges and local advocacy. In contrast, southern peninsula communities such as Rosebud and Dromana posted swings against the Liberals, reflecting growing voter interest in independent and Labor alternatives.
Zoe McKenzie’s recent policy commitments – including a $2 million pledge for mobile coverage upgrades in Somerville – appear to have bolstered support in northern booths.
Independent Ben Smith, endorsed by Climate 200, mounted a serious challenge in the south but was dogged by last-minute controversy over his association with pro-Palestinian protest groups. His campaign had targeted younger and more progressive voters, particularly in Rosebud and surrounding areas, but ultimately fell short.
Although McKenzie’s hold on Flinders appears secure, the booth-level data reveals a shifting political landscape, with future elections likely to be more competitive—especially in southern coastal towns.
Final results will be confirmed by the Australian Electoral Commission in the coming days.
