MORNINGTON PENINSULA — Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie is on track to retain the seat of Flinders, following a tightly contested federal election. While the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has not yet formally declared the result, current figures show McKenzie holding a clear lead over independent challenger Ben Smith.
As of Tuesday evening, the AEC reported McKenzie ahead with 53.34% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, compared to Smith’s 46.66%, giving her a margin of more than 6,400 votes.
The result follows a three-candidate-preferred count, which saw Labor’s Sarah Race excluded after preferences were distributed. Independent Ben Smith emerged as the primary challenger, capitalising on a strong local campaign.
McKenzie, who was first elected to represent Flinders in 2022, received 41.24% of first preference votes, reflecting a 2.05% swing against her. Smith gained 21.27% of first preferences, indicating growing support for independents in the region.
The seat of Flinders, which spans most of the Mornington Peninsula, has traditionally been a safe Liberal seat. However, the 2025 contest saw increased competition and voter interest, suggesting shifting political sentiment.
The final result remains subject to the counting of postal and declaration votes, with the AEC expected to confirm the outcome in the coming days.
For ongoing updates, visit the AEC Tally Room or the ABC Flinders election guide.
