Written by Jay Scicluna.
Following a series of recent elections across the globe, a trend has emerged prompting an important that is demanding an answer:
“Are voters globally shifting from the left to the centre-right?”
From the Local Council Elections in Victoria, including here on the Mornington Peninsula to Queensland’s return to a Liberal-National State Government and Donald Trump’s re-election in the US, there appears to be a growing preference for centre-right governments and leaders. These developments, coupled with opinion polls are suggesting a tight race between Australia’s Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Liberal leader Peter Dutton, highlighting a potential political realignment. But what’s driving this change in voter behaviour?
Economic Concerns Take Centre Stage
Economic uncertainty appears to be a driving factor influencing this shift. Rising living costs, housing shortages, and inflation have left voters across the globe prioritising fiscal responsibility and stability over progressive reforms.
This year in Queensland, David Crisafulli led the Liberal-National Party to government, capitalising on widespread anxieties and highlighting the party’s historical strengths in economic management. Their messaging was straightforward and simple, offering practical solutions to everyday concerns, which resonated with voters feeling the strain of rising household expenses and financial pressures. The Queensland Labor Party, in power since 2012, saw Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk step down 10 months before the state election, handing over leadership to Steven John Miles in an attempt to counter the government’s declining popularity.
Similarly, local election results on the Mornington Peninsula highlighted a demand for greater accountability in council spending and a sharper focus on essential infrastructure needs. Candidates who failed to prioritise these concerns faced significant challenges. This was evident in Briars Ward, where two seasoned councillors, Cr Despi O’Connor and Cr Anthony Marsh, both seeking re-election and pitted against eachother in true political fashion. O’Connor ran a well-defined campaign but took a firm stance on contentious issues such as the 3.3% building levy on new constructions and the unpopular paid parking trial, attempting to persuade voters to reconsider their opposition. However, this approach played into Marsh’s hands. He offered clear and straightforward answers, pldging opposition to the 3.3% levy and the paid parking trial. His decisive stance resonated with voters, leading to an outright victory.
This political realignment extends beyond Australia. Globally, voters are questioning whether expansive government programs and ambitious social agendas adequately address their immediate needs.
A Pushback Against Progressive Policies
The rise of the centre-right also reflects dissatisfaction with progressive policies, particularly in cultural and environmental areas. In the United States of America, Donald Trump’s return to the White House, defeating Kamala Harris, is seen as a rejection of the Democratic Party’s progressive platform. His campaign leaned heavily on “common sense” messaging, promising to focus on jobs, immigration, and reducing government regulation.
Back in Australia, similar frustrations have emerged. The failure of the Voice to Parliament Referendum underscored scepticism about progressive proposals that some perceived as disconnected from everyday concerns. Additionally, ongoing debates around climate policies and gender equity have sparked polarised reactions, with voters questioning their practical benefits.
A Tight Contest Looms in 2025
The political shift in Australia will soon face a major test. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will take his government to a federal election in 2025, with polls suggesting an extremely close contest. According to the Australian Financial Review, Albanese and opposition leader Peter Dutton are neck and neck as preferred prime minister, while the Coalition currently leads Labor in two-party preferred polling.
This marks a significant shift from Labor’s decisive victory in 2022. Rising living costs and dissatisfaction with key government policies have allowed the Coalition to regain momentum as a viable alternative to govern the country. For Albanese, maintaining voter confidence will require a sharper focus on economic issues and delivering practical solutions to housing affordability and energy prices. While it is uncommon for a government to be ousted after one term, it is not impossible, and Labor’s at risk of succumbing to this global shift. Albanese’s biggest advantage lies in his opponent, Peter Dutton, a polarising figure who struggles to gain widespread public support. Often perceived as rigid and lacking empathy, Dutton has faced years of Labor’s mockery, with comparisons to Voldemort, the antagonist from the Harry Potter series, underscoring his “villainous” image. Ironically, however, Albanese himself risks inviting ridicule, his evolving public image bears striking resemblance to Dana Carvey’s turtle suit character from the 2002 film Master of Disguise.
The Global Perspective
The shift towards centre-right politics isn’t unique to Australia. In Europe, right-wing populist parties also have gained traction in nations like Italy with right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Sweden with centre-right Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, where concerns about immigration, energy policy, and taxation dominate public debate. These trends reflect a broader realignment where voters are prioritising immediate, practical outcomes over long-term, transformative goals.
In the US, Trump’s return underscores this dynamic. His campaign capitalised on voter fatigue with progressive ideals, framing his policies as a return to traditional values and economic strength. Similar movements are evident in other parts of the world, where populist leaders have succeeded by addressing concerns about national identity and economic sovereignty.
Local Insights: Mornington Peninsula
The Mornington Peninsula could be realigning to reflect this broader global trend. Historically, a conservative region, it began shifting towards the left in recent years, with 2020 bringing a more progressive council and the election of Paul Mercurio as the first Labor MP for Hastings in over a decade in 2022. However, since then, the pendulum appears to be swinging back.
The growing unpopularity of the former premier Daniel Andrews and the impact of the COVID-19 lockdowns played a significant factor in this shift. As a result, many long-time, “rusted on” Labor supporters are reassessing their priorities. This was particularly evident in the recent council election, where candidates focusing on infrastructure, accountability, and housing affordability gained more traction than those prioritising long-term environmental and social issues. Any reference or affiliation the Labor Party was political poison. Looking ahead, in 2026, the Victorian State election could also reflect this trend, with Premier Jacinta Allan’s Labor Government anticipated to suffer a similar fate as the Queensland Labor government—if John Pesutto and the Victorian Liberal-National Party can effectively capitalise on this global momentum.
What Lies Ahead?
While recent trends favour the centre-right, political landscapes are rarely static. Shifting voter preferences often reflect the economic and social context of the moment. Governments that fail to adapt risk falling out of favour, regardless of their ideological leanings.
For Albanese and his Labor government, the challenge lies in reconnecting with voters who feel left behind by progressive policies. Likewise, Peter Dutton must balance his focus on economic management with presenting a cohesive, forward-looking vision.
Globally, the resurgence of centre-right politics raises important questions about the direction of governance. Will this shift lead to lasting political realignments, or is it a temporary response to current challenges? Either way, voters hold the power to shape the next chapter in this evolving narrative.
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