With a federal election anticipated in May, STPL News has conducted an early poll to gauge voter sentiment in the Flinders electorate. While the election has not yet been called, this survey provides an initial snapshot of how residents are currently leaning.
Preliminary Results (421 Responses)
- Sarah Race (Labor): 45% (190 votes)
- Zoe McKenzie (Liberal National Party – LNP): 36% (151 votes)
- Ben Smith (Independent): 14% (59 votes)
- Unsure: 5% (21 votes)
Methodology & Considerations
This survey was conducted via the STPL News E-News list and social media platforms, with measures in place to prevent multiple votes, including email verification and IP blocking.
Strengths of the Methodology
- Email Requirement & IP Blocking – Reduces duplicate votes and ballot stuffing.
- STPL News E-News List – Engages an audience likely to be politically aware.
- Social Media Distribution – Reaches a broader demographic.
Potential Biases & Limitations
- Self-Selection Bias – Respondents are more likely to be politically engaged individuals and may not fully represent the broader electorate.
- Digital Divide – Older or less tech-savvy voters who do not use email or social media may be underrepresented.
- Age of Audience – A significant portion of Facebook users and STPL News subscribers may fall within specific age ranges, which could influence the overall representation of the electorate. If audience demographic is unbalanced, it could skew results.
- Geographic Spread – While efforts are made to reach a wide audience, ensuring respondents are genuinely from the Flinders electorate remains a priority.
- Lack of Demographic Data – The survey does not collect age, gender, or location details, which means results cannot be weighted to reflect the electorate’s overall population makeup.
Disclaimer
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the survey, this poll is not scientific. It is influenced by various factors such as self-selection bias, digital accessibility, and respondent demographics, which may not fully represent the broader Flinders electorate. As such, the results should only be viewed as an early gauge of voter sentiment, not as a definitive predictor of election outcomes.
What These Numbers Mean
These early figures suggest a strong contest between Labor candidate Sarah Race and incumbent Liberal National Party (LNP) member Zoe McKenzie, with Independent Ben Smith also securing notable support. However, 5% of respondents remain undecided, indicating that voter preferences may shift as the election draws closer.
Next Steps: Have Your Say!
While 421 responses provide a useful early indicator, we are aiming for at least 1,062 responses to ensure a more representative snapshot. If you haven’t yet participated, click here to vote now.
STPL News will continue tracking voter sentiment and provide further updates as election developments unfold.
