As at Sunday 04/01/26 (BOM forecasts issued 11:37am AEDT for Frankston South and 12:49pm AEDT for Red Hill), conditions look generally favourable early in the week, then hot midweek, with a higher chance of showers and windier conditions late week.
A recent update previously published by STPL News states water quality testing was clear to resume normal activities, including swimming, at Frankston Beach and Sweetwater Creek.
Recent shark sightings near Portsea were public reports from late December and remain a situational reminder for swimmers, surfers and paddlers.
Top issues to plan around (priority order):
Extreme UV early week (BOM)
- Mon 05/01: UV Index 11 (Extreme), sun protection recommended 9:10am to 5:40pm (Frankston South and Red Hill).
- Tue 06/01: UV Index 12 (Extreme), sun protection 9:00am to 5:40pm (Frankston South) and 9:00am to 5:50pm (Red Hill).
- Wed 07/01: UV Index 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:10am to 5:40pm (Frankston South and Red Hill).
Heat on Wednesday 07/01/26 (BOM)
- Frankston (Frankston South): forecast 39°C, sunny, with winds becoming NW to NE 20 to 30 km/h then tending NW to SW in the afternoon.
- Mornington Peninsula (Red Hill): forecast 37°C, sunny, with winds becoming N to NW 15 to 25 km/h then shifting S to SW in the afternoon.
Late-week wind change and showers (BOM):
- Thu 08/01: Frankston South includes a chance of a thunderstorm later in the day (10% chance of rain).
- Fri 09/01: showers possible later (Frankston South 30%, Red Hill 40%) and a thunderstorm chance noted for Frankston South.
- Sat 10/01: high chance of showers (70%) and stronger winds, with Red Hill indicating SW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning and Frankston South indicating S to SW 20 to 30 km/h during the day.
Takeaway: families, weak swimmers, inflatables, paddlers and surf users should take extra care during Extreme UV periods, the midweek heat, and any late-week wind or storm changes.
Alerts and safety notices
Shark sightings: Portsea area (reminder)
- Current status: Public reports (not official warnings)
- Area(s): Portsea Beach / Portsea (nearshore)
- Reported (public reports):
- 28/12/25, 1:59pm: estimated 2.5 m white shark, about 150 m offshore, reported from a boat (STPL News summary of Dorsal Watch alert).
- 29/12/25, 3:41pm: estimated 3 m white shark, about 50 m offshore, logged on Dorsal (STPL News report links to the public report page).
- Practical advice: If you receive credible advice of a nearby sighting, leave the water calmly, avoid swimming alone, and follow directions from lifesavers and emergency services.
Water quality: Sweetwater Creek and Frankston Beach
- Current status: Resolved (per latest STPL News update)
- Area(s): Sweetwater Creek and Frankston Beach
- Last published update: 02/01/26
- Source: South East Water update, as reported by STPL News
- Practical advice: Avoid swimming near creek outlets and stormwater drains, particularly after rain, and check local signage on arrival.
Marine stingers: Bluebottles and jellyfish
- Current status: No recent reports received (per STPL News), remain alert
- Last published note: 02/01/26
- Source: STPL News weekend beach report
- Practical advice: Watch for bluebottles on the sand and in the shallows, especially after onshore winds, and keep children and dogs away from washed-up stingers.
Weather and UV outlook (BOM)
Frankston
- Mon 05/01: Mostly sunny, 24°C, 5% chance of rain, S 20 to 30 km/h becoming light late; UV 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:10am to 5:40pm.
- Tue 06/01: Mostly sunny, 28°C, 0% chance of rain; light winds, becoming S to SE 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon; UV 12 (Extreme), sun protection 9:00am to 5:40pm.
- Wed 07/01: Sunny, 39°C, 5% chance of rain; winds NW to NE 20 to 30 km/h, tending NW to SW in the afternoon; UV 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:10am to 5:40pm.
- Thu 08/01: Partly cloudy, 30°C, 10% chance of rain; chance of a thunderstorm later, winds tending southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.
- Fri 09/01: Partly cloudy, 34°C, 30% chance of rain (0 to 1 mm); slight chance of a shower later and thunderstorm chance; winds becoming S to SW 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.
- Sat 10/01: Shower or two, 25°C, 70% chance of rain (0 to 6 mm); winds W to SW 15 to 20 km/h, tending S to SW 20 to 30 km/h.
Mornington Peninsula
- Mon 05/01: Mostly sunny, 23°C, 0% chance of rain; S 15 to 25 km/h; UV 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:10am to 5:40pm.
- Tue 06/01: Mostly sunny, 26°C, 0% chance of rain; light winds, becoming S 15 to 20 km/h; UV 12 (Extreme), sun protection 9:00am to 5:50pm.
- Wed 07/01: Sunny, 37°C, 5% chance of rain; N to NW 15 to 25 km/h, shifting S to SW in the afternoon; UV 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:10am to 5:40pm.
- Thu 08/01: Partly cloudy, 27°C, 10% chance of rain; winds tending southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.
- Fri 09/01: Medium chance of showers later (40%), 31°C (0 to 1 mm); winds S 15 to 25 km/h.
- Sat 10/01: High chance of showers (70%), 24°C (0 to 6 mm); winds SW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.
Surf and water hazards to keep in mind
- Heat can increase beach numbers, raising the risk of lost children and delayed assistance in an incident.
- Wind changes can alter conditions quickly, including chop for inflatables and paddle craft.
- Open-coast beaches can have rips and strong currents even when it looks calmer from shore.
- After any rain, avoid swimming near creek outlets and stormwater drains.
Patrols and beach access
Patrol availability varies by beach and day. Check BeachSafe before travelling and on arrival, then swim between the flags.
For Frankston, the Frankston Life Saving Club states it provides beach patrols between November and April, usually weekends and public holidays (around 12:00pm to 5:00pm).
Before you go checklist
- Check conditions on arrival, including signage near creek outlets and drains.
- Plan around Extreme UV early week: shade, hat, long sleeves, water, and sunscreen reapplication.
- On Wed 07/01, plan for very hot conditions and avoid overexertion in and out of the water.
- If storms build or winds shift, get out early and move off the sand.
- Choose a patrolled beach and swim between the flags.
- Supervise children at all times and keep non-swimmers within arm’s reach.
- If you notice a hazard, note the beach name, time and what you observed and send it through to STPL News.
Sources and transparency
This report references:
- Bureau of Meteorology forecasts and UV guidance for Frankston South and Red Hill (issued 04/01/26).
- STPL News weekend beach report (water quality update, bluebottle note, Portsea reminder).
- STPL News Portsea shark sighting coverage (public reports via Dorsal Watch).
- BeachSafe patrol and beach information pages.
- Frankston Life Saving Club patrol information.
Conditions can change quickly. If you notice a hazard, include the beach name, time, and what you observed and send it through to STPL News.
