The ABC is projecting that Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has lost his Queensland seat of Dickson, in a shock result that could reshape the federal political landscape.

With just under a third of the vote counted, Labor candidate Ali France is ahead on first preferences, while an independent candidate is polling just over 13 per cent. A significant swing toward Labor has seen the marginal seat tip red.

If confirmed, the result would see France claim victory on her third attempt at the seat. Dutton, who has held Dickson since 2001, would become the first major party leader to lose their seat since John Howard in 2007.